ECOWAS is in turmoil. The three largest countries are withdrawing, and there is no prospect of mediation.

[EPA-EFE/STR]

The ruling military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger announced on Sunday their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in a move that analysts considered “currently carrying a great loss for the organization and a turbulent future for those countries,” amid the absence of any immediate horizon for a solution.

ECOWAS The Kingdom, which includes 15 countries, received this painful blow from three important and influential countries in West Africa, according to three experts who spoke to Sky News Arabia, which opens the door to the possibility of its cracking in light of mounting Western pressure on it, especially from France, and the continuation of the regimes of the three countries. In its positions, rejecting any sanctions and demanding recognition.

Military regimes ruling in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced in their joint statement that they “decided, with full sovereignty, to immediately withdraw Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States while bearing all their responsibilities before history and in response to the expectations and aspirations of their people.”

The three countries face insecurity, violence committed by extremist groups, and deteriorating social conditions, and their relations with ECOWAS have become strained since the army seized power in Mali in 2020, in Burkina Faso in 2022, and in Niger in 2023.

ECOWAS is trying to stop the wave of coups and pressure for the return of civilians to power as soon as possible, and it has imposed severe sanctions on Mali and Nigeria. It went so far as to threaten to use force against the two Nigerian coups and suspend the participation of the three countries in their institutions.

The leaders of the ruling military regimes in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso signed an agreement on September 16, 2023, in Bamako, according to which the three countries pledged to assist each other in the event of any rebellion or external aggression against any of them and to consider any attack on the sovereignty and safety of one or more of the parties. signatory to it, aggression against other parties.

Amid French pressure to restore its crisis-ridden African influence, according to observers, the Russian presence was quickly present following the tripartite military agreement, with the arrival of Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Yunusbey Yevkurov and the Bahraini meeting with the defense ministers of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

big loss

Sabah Moussa, an expert on the Horn of Africa, confirmed in an interview with “Sky News Arabia” the great loss of ECOWAS to the three “important countries in West Africa. The crisis was concluded in points:

• Since the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, there have been intersections between the organization and those countries, with them accusing it of blatant interference in their internal affairs under pressure. Paris on her.
• The three countries are very important in West Africa and influential within the organization.
• There was data confirming that Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali would withdraw from ECOWAS, with growing pressure on them from the organization, the most prominent of which was in Niger, specifically the demand to release its president, who turned against him, and take him out of the country amid the military junta’s refusal to do so, and to keep him as a card in any future negotiations.
• The relationship between those countries and the organization was under the threat of economic sanctions and military intervention, especially from the rest of the organization’s countries, especially Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire, which are under great French pressure, especially after Paris lost its influence in those countries after the coups.
• The tripartite withdrawal from the organization was expected, with these countries establishing a military alliance among themselves, which seemed like a prelude to exiting and influencing ECOWAS.

 

There is no prospect of mediation.

According to Musa, the future does not hold any prospects for mediation but rather more conflict, and this can be summed up by:

• The tripartite withdrawal is the beginning of a larger conflict, with the establishment of the tripartite military alliance matched by the possibility of ECOWAS continuing to threaten economic sanctions and military intervention.
• Any new economic sanctions imposed on the three countries under French pressure that these countries see as having no effect, especially since they are supported by...Russia For example, the idea of military intervention will not work in light of the tripartite alliance.
• Withdrawal means further weakening of ECOWAS, given that there is no possibility for these countries to return to the organization soon unless there are internal reforms that affect it, eliminating the possibility of external influence, as the countries say.
• The decision of these countries may be seen by some as further isolation, but in light of the nature of the tripartite military and perhaps economic alliance between them, this reduces this scenario.
• ECOWAS, by losing three important countries in the Sahel countries, will remain the biggest loser.
• I do not believe that there will be mediation on the horizon or the possibility of countries returning to the organization soon, except with more internal reforms of the organization, and this is not currently expected.

A thorny confession

In turn, Sudanese writer and political analyst Haitham Mahmoud told Sky News Arabia,

• Withdrawals will precipitate further unstable situations in those countries while “breaking the back” of ECOWAS.
• What happened in Niger broke the back of ECOWAS, led to the withdrawal of the three countries, and will accelerate the withdrawal of other countries.
• A unified statement was issued by the three countries based on the fact that the withdrawals with popular approval are a tactic considering that the councils of those countries are temporary and want to win over their peoples, who have suffered from Western colonialism, by leaving ECOWAS, which is accused of accepting external dictates.
• The withdrawal will have a very significant impact on ECOWAS, especially the three important countries in West Africa, and it cannot be reversed except by achieving internal reform of the organization and recognition of the councils of those countries.
• Mediation that may be Nigerian It qualifies for it, between those countries and the organization. If it does not succeed, ECOWAS will be in ruins after losing what can be considered a third of the countries that influence it.
• Recognizing the councils of these countries will be an obstacle for ECOWAS, as it may open the door to coups d'état in other countries, and not recognizing the councils will lose them countries, as we mentioned, and lead to their disintegration.
• ECOWAS reform is still a tool in the hands of Western countries, and thus the crisis continues.

Conditions 'will get worse'

Not far away, Algerian professor and economic expert Mourad Kouachi, in an interview with Sky News Arabia, believes that the situation will “get worse” in that region for the following reasons:

• ECOWAS continues to submit to foreign powers, with some accusing it of becoming a puppet. Western countries are driven militarily and economically to exploit the wealth of their countries while depriving their people of the most basic conditions for economic development.
• Failure to develop a plan for a peaceful transfer of power and organize fair elections among the councils that took control of the government will make the crisis develop further and continue among peoples who are considered the biggest losers in light of the suffering of past years between poverty, wars, diseases, and the loss of their wealth with the submission of previous regimes to the West, specifically France.
• It is unlikely that OIC member state mediations will resolve disputes at this current stage.
• Major powers have the ability to mediate, but they must intervene wisely and put aside their interests because it is time for the African people to enjoy their wealth.

About ECOWAS

• It was founded in 1975 with the aim of promoting economic development among its 15 members. Its countries have witnessed armed conflicts, whether with coups or against rebel or terrorist groups, and the organization usually denies being subject to any Western pressure.
• Based in the Nigerian capital, Abuja It includes French-speaking countries: Burkina Faso, Benin, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo, along with other English-speaking countries: Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, and two Portuguese-speaking members, Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau.
• The organization included Mauritius. But it withdrew from it in 2001.
• The total population of the ECOWAS group is about 350 million people, according to statistics dating back to 2021, while its total area is 5 million square kilometers, or 17% of the total area of the African continent.