After a few days, the Ukrainian war enters its third year, and it seems clear that its end or finding a solution is out of the question in the short term, in light of the interference of regional and international factors.
A few days later, the Ukrainian war is entering its third year, and it seems clear that its end or finding a solution is out of the question in the short term, in light of the interplay of regional and international factors.
In this context, it is necessary to trace the impact of the Ukrainian war on the situation in Europe, especially after the trend of things last year in favor of Moscow and as a result of the circulating scenarios about the possibility of a new war and the need for Europe to prepare for the escalation of hostility with Russia.
The second anniversary comes as the balance of power on the ground shifts in favor of the Russian side. Not only has the Ukrainian counterattack that launched at the beginning of the summer of 2023 failed, but the Kiev forces are now suffering from a lack of strength due to a lack of ammunition, especially field artillery shells.
The Ukrainians thus face great difficulty in containing the Russian advance. Especially in the town of Avdiivka, located north of Donetsk, which is in danger of falling and which has witnessed a fierce battle since last fall, exceeding in its violence the battles in Bakhmut.
One of the reasons that led to the recent Ukrainian retreat is the scarcity of American military aid, which turned into a subject of debate between Republicans and Democrats. This increases the Ukrainians’ fear that the year 2024 will be very difficult.
Hence, Europe is stepping up by concluding security agreements, providing huge financial aid, and delivering weapons in an attempt to rescue soldier Volodymyr Zelensky and prevent the Ukrainian collapse.
In this context, the Ukrainian President’s tour this week in Berlin and Paris took place in order to strengthen the support of European countries and conclude security agreements with Germany and France after the agreement was signed with the United Kingdom.
In the first phase of the war, Germany and France were criticized for not playing a leadership role in supporting Ukraine, and now, in the face of the “American transition phase,” it seems that Germany and France are preparing to assume the responsibility of leading the European effort in order to maintain the support that European countries provide to Kiev not only at the military level but also on the humanitarian and economic level.
These commitments were promised in July 2023 by the G7 countries and then by twenty-five other countries, including Poland, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius, where they failed to start the process of Kiev's accession to NATO.
This relatively European support reassures Ukraine, which is concerned about the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
In the midst of this atmosphere, the announcement of the death of Alexei Navalny, the first Russian opponent to the Kremlin master, in his prison and under controversial circumstances, increased the pace of Western-Russian tension and urged Europe not to abandon Ukraine.
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