The dollar's losses on the black market continue. Flash crash or sustainable decline?

Update: At exactly four o’clock Cairo time, the price of the dollar reached levels of 57 pounds to the dollar, according to investing data and current price movement. Transactions are currently limited as a result of the strong fluctuation in prices since the day before yesterday.

investing.com, the price fell. In recent days, the Egyptian black market has been strongly affected by the central decision, raising interest by 2% and receiving a lot of confirmed news about a major deal that will provide hard currency for Egypt in the following days.

The price of the dollar in Egypt fell to 60 levels, down from the 73 at which it traded at the end of January 2024.

The reason for the 18% decline in the price of the dollar in Egypt

The decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in Egypt by approximately 18% from its historical peak is due to news trading, as it was indicated in many press and media reports that there was a deal to sell resorts in the city of Ras Al-Hikma to Emirati businessmen in a deal worth approximately 22 billion dollars, and it was not revealed.

 After the details of the deal, which are expected to be announced within a week, according to what Engineer Tariq Shukri, Undersecretary of the Housing Committee in the Egyptian Parliament, said. 

This will become clear with the actual size of the deal and the payments that will provide the dollar proceeds from the deal in a form that contributes to increasing the official supply of the dollar, thus reducing the activity of the parallel market and contributing to reducing the price of the dollar and repaying the short-term debts owed by the Egyptian government during 2024.

The International Monetary Fund...a new push

This news coincided with the International Monetary Fund mission extending the duration of its visits and meetings, with proposals to increase the size of the International Monetary Fund loan to Egypt from $3 billion in its first form to more than $6 billion to solve the hard currency shortage crisis in Egypt and contribute to Egypt’s repayment of international debts.

 And the benefits and meeting the needs of the Egyptian market in a way that reduces the gap between the official price of the dollar, which has been fixed at 31 pounds to the dollar since last March, and the current levels of 60 pounds to the dollar.

 The Egyptian government and the Central Bank of Egypt, during the last week, did two things that the IMF had called for in its directives to reform The Egyptian economy aims to raise interest rates by 2% at once to achieve monetary tightening as well as cancel tax exceptions for government projects, which contributes to providing a single opportunity for the private and public sectors.

These matters contributed to calming the dollar bulls on the black market and increasing sales based on this news. More details are awaited in the coming weeks, which will control the price of the dollar and foreign currencies on the black market in Egypt.

When will the Egyptian government devalue the pound?

The International Monetary Fund called on the Egyptian government to devalue the pound, a decision that Egypt is postponing and that analysts believe is the reason for the delay in The dollar's losses on the black market continue.

 Flash crash or sustainable decline? the IMF disbursing the late installments of the loan that were agreed upon at the end of 2022. Some economic experts expect that the Egyptian government will postpone the decision to reduce the value of the pound against other currencies. 

foreign currencies until the price of the dollar is controlled in the parallel market to recover hard currencies supplied from Egyptians’ transfers abroad to official channels instead of the black market. 

It is considered the second-largest source of foreign exchange after exports. Data for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023–24 revealed a decline estimated at 44% in remittances by Egyptians from abroad compared to the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021–22, which is what the Egyptian government is trying to restore to official channels.